New, big challenges confront Obama the candidate: "Obama owns the slow-to-recover economy and is the face of a Washington he once campaigned against. Polls show his diverse voting coalition from 2008 cracked and his support among independents weakened. His path to Electoral College victory in 2012 is tougher. And he doesn't have George W. Bush's unpopularity paving the way for a Democratic victory.
But the upsides are huge, too.
His personal popularity is still high and he has the White House bully pulpit. He's a proven record fundraiser and he has no primary challenger. The brain trust of Obama's first campaign will run the second. Also, there's no obvious Republican rival in a crowded GOP field.
This president has accomplished more in two years than many of his predecessors did in two terms.
After preaching bipartisanship as a candidate, Obama the president leveraged huge Democratic majorities in Congress to produce a series of legislative achievements: the health care overhaul, new financial rules and an economic stimulus measure. He declared an end to the combat mission in Iraq and, while bolstering U.S. forces in Afghanistan, he has pledged to start pulling troops home.
It's a record that could help or hurt his prospects depending on the whims of an electorate that has shown itself impatient with spotty progress amid economic turmoil.
The issue is certain to dominate the campaign.
'This will be about the economy,' said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs. 'It was when we were last playing presidential politics, and it will be when we start again.'
Economists predict the unemployment rate won't fall considerably before the election. White House officials privately acknowledge that they don't expect a complete economic turnaround. They're banking on good economic news—like the Friday report that unemployment slipped to 9.4 percent in December—will continue over the next year, allowing Obama to argue that he's overseeing a rebirth and, thus, shouldn't be fired.
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Life, Liberty, & the Pursuit of Happiness
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